Doncaster Property Blog » December 2018

Monthly Archives: December 2018

Doncaster Property News

Doncaster Homeowners Have Made an Annual Profit Of £3,969 Since the Millennium

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As we go full steam ahead into 2019, it’s certain that the Doncaster housing market in 2018 was a little more restrained than 2016 and 2017 and I believe this will continue into 2019. Property ownership is a medium to long term investment so, looking at the long-term, the average Doncaster homeowner, having owned their property since the Millennium, has seen its value rise by more than 153%.

This is important, as house prices are a national obsession and tied into the health of the UK economy as a whole. The preponderance of that historical gain in Doncaster property values has come from the growth in Doncaster property values, while some of it will have been enhanced by extending, modernising or developing their Doncaster home.

Taking a look at the different property types in Doncaster, and the profit made by each type, makes interesting reading..

Average Price
Paid in 2000 in Doncaster
Average Price
Paid in 2018 in Doncaster
Average Total Profit in last 20 years in Doncaster Average Householder Profit per Year in Doncaster Average Annual % Increase in Doncaster
Detached £92,679 £263,821 £171,142 £9,508 10.2%
Semi £41,526 £118,580 £77,054 £4,281 10.4%
Terraced £22,188 £83,250 £61,062 £3,392 15.4%
Apartments £53,078 £87,490 £34,412 £1,912 3.7%
Overall Average £48,562 £119,997 £71,435 £3,969 8.5%

However, we can’t forget there has been just over 60% inflation over those 18 years, which eats into the ‘real’ value (or true spending power of that profit) … so if we take into account inflation since 2000, the true spending power of that profit has been lower.

Total ‘REAL’ Profit
After Inflation in Doncaster
‘Real’ Annual
Profit in Doncaster
Detached £104,482 £5,805
Semi £47,042 £2,613
Terraced £37,278 £2,071
Apartments £21,009 £1,167
Overall
Average
£43,611 £2,423

So the ‘real’ value of the profit, after inflation, in Doncaster has been £2,423 per year.. still nothing to sniff at.

I wanted to show you that even though we had the 2008/09 Credit Crunch property market crash where, depending on the type of Doncaster property, property values dropped between 15% and 20% in 18 months … Doncaster homeowners over the long term are still better off than those renting.

Moving forward, the question I get asked time and again is what will happen in the future to the Doncaster Property market? Irrespective of what is happening in the World, Europe or even Central London, the biggest factor over the medium to long term to ensure that this level of house price growth is maintained in Doncaster is the building of new homes both locally and in the country as a whole. Whilst we haven’t had the 2018 stats yet, Government sources suggest this will be nearer 180,000 to 190,000, a decrease from the 2017 figure of 217,350 new households being created. When you consider that we need to build 240,000 households to equal demand (immigration, people living longer, higher divorce rates and people co-habiting later in life etc) … demand will outstrip supply and unless the Government start to spend billions building council houses .. this trend will continue for years (and decades to come).

Another factor is that whilst Doncaster landlords have been hit with higher taxes to enable them to actually be a landlord most, in every national survey, still intends to increase their portfolio in the medium to long term. The youngsters of Doncaster see renting as a choice, giving them flexibility and options that being tied to a home cannot give… thus meaning demand will continue to grow and landlords will be able to enjoy increased rents and capital growth, although those very same Doncaster buy to let landlords will have to work smarter in the future to continue to make decent returns (profits) from their buy to let investments. Even with the tempering of house price inflation in Doncaster in 2018, most Doncaster buy to let landlords (and homeowners) are still sitting on a copious amount of growth from previous years.

The question is, how do you, as a Doncaster buy to let landlord, ensure that continues?

Since the 1990’s, making money from investing in buy to let property was as easy as falling off a log. Looking forward though, with all the changes in the tax regime and balance of power, making those similar levels of return in the future won’t be so easy. Over the last ten years, I have seen the role of the forward thinking agents evolve from a person collecting the rent to a more all-inclusive role; I call it, ‘strategic portfolio leadership’. Thankfully, along with myself, there are a handful of agents in Doncaster whom I would consider exemplary at this landlord portfolio strategy where they can give you a balanced structured overview of your short, medium and long-term goals, in relation to your required return on investment, yield and capital growth requirements. If you would like such advice, speak with your current agent – whether you are a landlord of ours or not – without any cost or commitment, feel free to drop me a line.

Doncaster Property News

Live in Doncaster? About to Retire and Privately Rent? You Could be £2,400 a Year Worse Off!

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You read the personal finance pages of the newspapers and it all seems to be the impending pensions crisis … where people aren’t saving enough for their retirement. But it’s not the lack of Doncaster peoples’ future pension incomes that are my immediate concern. The fact is that so many of the future retirees in Doncaster over the coming decade, who never bought their home in the Millennial years of the 1990s and 2000s, will have to make some tough decisions regarding what house they live in when they retire anytime between now and 2038.

In Doncaster, there are 1,119 privately rented households, where the head of the household is between 50 years and 64 years of age (meaning they will be retiring anytime between now and 2038). They are working now and easily paying the rent, yet what happens when they retire?

A Doncaster retired couple, who currently privately rent and who have paid their fully qualifying NI stamp over the last few decades are likely to retire with the couples State Pension of £1,091 per month plus a tiny bit of private pension if they are lucky. Given that the average rent in Doncaster is £539 a month – a lot of that pension will be lost in rent. This means taxpayers will have no alternative but to step in and top up the rent payments with Housing Benefit, yet…

The maximum housing benefit for a couple in Doncaster is currently £338.35 per month … leaving a significant gap when you consider the average rent in Doncaster is £539 per month

It is most people’s opinion that retirees are either council tenants or own their home outright. Looking at these figures though, it looks like both these ‘mature’ private renters could be having to make some decisions on their lifestyle and where they live, possibly looking at downsizing the home they rent to make things more affordable in their old age. Also, the government will be in for a horrible surprise as more of Doncaster people retire and continue to rent from a private landlord. Numerous Doncaster private renters, with little or no savings, will have to rely on Housing Benefit, which will put greater pressure on the public purse.

The average Doncaster retiree will need to find £2,408 pa to stay in their privately rented home after retirement

A recent report from Scottish Widows suggested that 1 in 8 OAP’s will be privately renting by 2032, up from the current one in 15.47 OAP’s whom currently private rent (or 6.47%). In fact, in that report they said the equivalent of more than one-third of the whole annual NHS budget would be spent on Housing Benefit for OAP’s in retirement living in private rented property.

What does this mean for mature Doncaster homeowners? I see many using equity release schemes to stay in their homes to pay for a better retirement and others more open to downsizing, selling their large home to a family that needs it and moving into a smaller apartment or bungalow … yet lets be frank – they aren’t building bungalows in large numbers in Doncaster anymore.

And for the Doncaster landlords? Well with the younger Millennials showing no appetite in jumping onto the homeownership bandwagon anytime soon, it can only result in the demands on the buy to let market from Doncaster tenants rising substantially. Of course, many Millennials will inherit money from their home owning parents in the coming few decades, yet a lot won’t as it will be spent on nursing home care and any leftovers (if any) split between siblings.

For those retiring in post 2050/2060, there is better news as official reports suggest those retirees will enjoy a State Pension approximately similar to today’s pensioners with auto-enrolment into top-up private pensions through their employer.

The solution to all this is to build more homes, of course. Last year we created/built just over 217,000 households in the UK, up from a post Millennial average of just under 150,000 households a year. We need to get back to the building booms of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s when on average 300,000 households were built … but back to reality … that won’t happen so it looks like we are turning into a nation of renters, which is of course good news for Doncaster’s buy to let landlords!

Doncaster Property News

As OAP’s set to rise to 1 in 4 of Doncaster’s population by 2037 – Where are they all going to live?

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With constant advances in technology, medicine and lifestyles, people in the Doncaster area are, on average, living longer than they might have a few decades ago. As Doncaster’s population ages, the problem of how the older generation are accommodated is starting to emerge. We, as a town, have to consider how we supply decent and appropriate accommodation for Doncaster’s growing older generation’s accommodation needs while still offering a lifestyle that is both modern and desirable.

 

In 1997 in Doncaster, around one in every six people (16%) were aged 65 years and over (and the local authority area as a whole), increasing to around one in every five people (19%) in 2017 and it is projected to reach one in every four people (25%) by 2037, meaning..

 

Over the next 19 years, the growth of the over 65 population in Doncaster will grow by 31.6% – a lot more than the overall growth population of Doncaster of 2.4% over the same time frame.

 

In fact, the number of those over 90 is expected to nearly double in our local authority from 2,482 (0.8%) in 2017 to 4,781 (1.5%) by 2037.

And looking at the proportional percentage changes over those years..

 

Age group percentage of the Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council – 1997 to 2017 and 2017 to 2037
Percentage Change from 1997 to 2017 Percentage Change from 2017 to 2037
Under 16 -13.64% -10.53%
16 to 64 -1.59% -6.45%
65 and Over 18.75% 31.58%

 

Looking at Doncaster and the local authority as a whole, there is a distinct under supply of bungalows and retirement living (i.e. sheltered) accommodation. The majority of sheltered accommodation fit for retirement is in the ex-local authority sector whilst the majority of private sector bungalows were built in the 1960s/70s/80s and are beginning to show their age (although that means there is often an opportunity for Doncaster investors and Doncaster buy to let landlords to buy a tired bungalow, do it up and flip it/rent it out).

In the medium to longer term, we need to build more bungalows and sheltered accommodation and, if we do that, that won’t only be of benefit to the elderly population of Doncaster – it will have a direct knock-on effect to the younger and middle-aged population by unlocking those family homes the older generation homeowners live in.

There have been 17 Housing Ministers since 1997. No one ever seems to stay in the job long enough to create a consensus and direction in Government Policy on the vital issue of the country’s housing shortage, yet the sound bites and White Papers seem only to focus exclusively on first-time buyers when there is an even more severe and disregarded shortage in suitable housing for the older generation.

 

This scantiness affects both mature homeowners trapped in unsuitably big family properties, unable to find smaller bungalows or suitable retirement apartments, whilst the waiting list for Council sheltered accommodation is putting a strain on other aspects of social care. In both circumstances, policy coming (or not coming) out of Government is repressing the supply and type of accommodation mature people desire, need and want, whilst at the same time, increasing the cost (and taxes) for social and NHS care.

 

Maybe we need tax breaks for people to downsize or planning permissions that stipulate bungalows only. Whichever way you look .. there are challenging times ahead for us all.

Doncaster Property News

Doncaster ‘Home Owning’ Movers and Shakers in 2018

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It’s now commonly agreed amongst economists and the general public that the dramatic rise in Doncaster property prices of the last six years has come to an end.

Read the National newspapers, and they talk of doom and gloom in the British housing market with such things as strained buyer affordability (as property prices have increased over the past six years at a far faster pace than average salaries), a lack of new properties being built and the Brexit uncertainties over the last two and half years being blamed for the slow down – yet in the last 12 months, people have still been moving, buying and selling in Doncaster at levels similar to the last six years – something tells me we have a case of ‘bad news selling newspapers’.

So instead, let me share with you what, exactly, is happening in the Doncaster property market, and more specifically, who is moving and why in Doncaster. Most of the sales in Doncaster over the past twelve months were semi-detached properties, which on average sold for £124,400. Detached properties had an average sold price of £226,200 and terraced properties averaged at £90,300.

In Doncaster, in the homeowner sector in 2018 (i.e. owner occupation), 1,612 households moved within the tenure (i.e. sold the home they owned and bought another one) and 314 new households were created (i.e. they moved from living with family/friends and bought their first home without privately renting).

Doncaster Home Movers in 2018
Moved from Owner Occupation to Private Rented 591
Moved from Private Rented to Owner Occupation 750
Owner Occupation to Social Housing 80
Straight to Owner Occupation 314
Left Owner Occupation (i.e. Household Ended) 388
Owner Occupation to Owner Occupation 1,612


What does this mean for Doncaster buy to let landlords? Well looking at the graph, it appears bad news for landlords. There were 750 households that moved into the home owning (owner occupation) tenure from the private rented sector, whilst on the other side of the coin, 591 Doncaster households moved to the private rented sector from owner occupation … which appears on the face of it, a reduction in the private sector.

My research has calculated that in 2018, an additional 781 new households in the Doncaster private rental sector were created

…and it will continue to grow at those levels for the foreseeable future.

I have one final thought and opportunity for you Doncaster property investors. 388 owner occupied households in Doncaster sold in last year where the homeowners had passed away. These properties can be a potential goldmine and offer great returns. The reason being is some members of the older generation who have owned these homes for decades have spent money on high capital items (double glazing / central heating etc.) but not spent money on more superficial low-ticket items such as up to date carpets, kitchen, bathroom and decorating (vital if you want to sell your property for top dollar). These properties can often be bought cheaply because most buyers can’t see past the avocado or brown bathroom suite from the 1970’s and the dated decor, so if you were to buy wisely and do the works, you could sell it on for a healthy profit.

So, whatever is happening in the world with Brexit, Trump, China, and the Stock Market … the Doncaster housing market is in decent shape for the medium to long term. If we do have small corrections in values in the next 12 to 18 months, in the long term, house prices have always returned … and returned with vengeance. Like I say to anyone buying a property, be they a first time buyer, landlord or homeowner … property is a long game … and if you play the long game, you will always win (although isn’t that true in most aspects of life?).